Can the sun’s heat make India poor?

India will not be able to develop due to heat?

Can the sun’s heat make India poor? Today, India has become the world’s 5th largest economy, but still, there exists a problem that eats up our GDP every year and that we ignore HEAT. This isn’t funny; it’s the truth, and it has a deadly impact on 22 crore Indians. Due to the heat, how has our economy been impacted, and what can we do to fight this? But if we just discuss problems, how does it matter? its important to discuss solutions.

The Hottest Month

In the month of January, there was a cold wave in the whole country and in February, there was a heatwave. the interesting part is that this February was the hottest one in the past 100 years and you know the scary part summer didn’t even start yet. if in February itself the temperature is reaching 36 to 39 degrees, then what will happen in future? we think its hot but nothing to worry we have AC we will start using it.  but the point is not that simple first let’s understand what is a heatwave? heatwave is declared when temperature crosses a particular limit. as per Indian meteorological department heatwave is declared, when the temperature un the plain area is 5 degrees more than the main temperature or if the temperature crosses 40 degrees, in hilly areas, if it is 5 degrees more than the main temperature or if the temperature crosses 35 degrees, in coastal areas if it is 5 degrees more then the main temperature or if the temperature crosses 37 degrees. for example in Mumbai in the month of February, the average temperature is around 31 degrees. but this year in the month of February, the temperature in Mumbai had reached 36 degrees. which mean for a few days a situation like heatwave had arrived. heatwave is not a season like summer, monsoon, winter. it is observed on a day to day basis. if you remember last year too. the situation was similar. in April and May, heatwave was declared near Delhi.

why do these heatwaves occur?

Heatwaves are formed when in the atmosphere of an area high pressure situation is created. since high pressure is created in the upper area, winds are trapped towards the ground and the heat reflected by ground gets trapped in this area. this heat is unable to escape from that area, in this high pressure area outside wind is unable to enter and the wind inside is unable to leave like a closed room, heat gets trapped at one place only.

world bank has predicted that due to climate change heatwaves will become more serious chances of heatwaves in India have increased by a 100 fold and we as a country to deal with this problem are not ready at all. in 2022 record heatwaves happened in India 16 states recorded 280 heatwaves days. this means the whole country had such high temperatures for 280 days, that its direct impact was happening on our health. a Mckinsey’s report states 22 crore India can fall victim to heatwaves due to such heatwaves and rising temperatures productivity is reduced we are privileged people, who spend most of the time in office or in doors. so we face heat only during traveling. but what about those people, who work in these high temperatures you will be surprised, but even today, India’s 75% population. which means 3 out of 4 people do labour related work. in Agriculture, construction, or in some unorganized sector 75% of Indians are dependent. this 75% contributes almost 1/3rd of our GDP. Mckinsey states that due to heatwaves productivity of everyone goes down by 5 to 10%. which means labourers get tired soon and work lesser than their capacity and this small thing has a large scale impact on our economy, upto 4.5% of our GDP. that is a 126 billion dollars every year to put things in perspective, in our country in a year only 3% of our budget gets allocated towards education. so if we are able to save this loss happening due to heatwaves and our able to forward this money towards education, then every year our education budget can be doubled from today. just think due to this our country how much development can take place our youth, can benefit so much. this economic loss can be reduced and used for better things. do you think our leader don’t know about this? of course they know it but if environment becomes our priority, then changes will happen.

Connection between Heatwave & Economy

when we talk about heatwaves our perspectives are restricted to an individual level and our health. but for a country, literally its citizen’s health is wealth. Germany, Switzerland, Norway what’s common in them? these countries are cold countries, where summers are less and these countries are one of the richest countries on the other hand African countries are among the poorest countries and these are hot countries. where the summers are more and winters are equal to none most of the rich countries are cold countries with the exception of middle eastern countries. which means, heat and wealth has a connection. in our country 70 crore people do a labour intensive, physical job. which means their work is linked to their physical capabilities. this link is crucial for the country’s economy. lets see in different sectors. how much of loss happens due to heatwaves.

Agriculture sector

in agriculture all the work happens in outdoors only. wheat starts getting harvested in April-May. in 2022 due to heatwaves the output of wheat which was supposed to be 110 million tonnes. but it was just 103 million toones, which lead to a sharp rise in the prices and the amount of wheat India wanted to export. it wasn’t able to do it due to heatwaves, crop loss and crop damage happens, which has a direct impact on inflation. because when crop loss happens prices also rise. international labour organization states by 2030 due to heat India’s agriculture sector will have 9% productivity loss. which means people won’t be able to work even if they want to because of the increasing heat.

Pharmaceuticals sector

India wants to become the world’s pharmacy and in some sense we are already there because for the whole world we manufacture generic drugs but every year we lose 20% medical equipment. because they are temperature sensitive 25% vaccines are wasted due to lack of cold chains. the temperatures are rising in the country, if the temperatures are not maintained in transport then the product is wasted. the economic impact of these medical losses in 313 million dollars, that is huge.

Construction sector

construction sector is one of India’s top employers but in this sector most of the employees have to work outdoors in the heat. if people aren’t able to work due to heat, then projects can be delayed and losses can increase International labour organization’s report states, by 2030 there can be 9% productivity loss in construction too.

Electricity sector

as the heat rises the demand of power also rises. not only power, demand for cooling also increases. by 2050 upto 50% of electricity demands will only be for cooling and because our power is generated majorly from coal to generate more power we will release more green house gases, due to which global warming will increase and heatwaves too and heatwave also has an impact on your wallet. How? because inflation rises due to heat inflation means rise in prices prices of our daily needs become costly.

let’s have a look at the data. wheat has become an important part of our diet our national sample survey states. in India 8 out of 10 people consume wheat or wheat related products and products like bread, biscuit, pasta are also made from it consumer price index (CPI) measures inflation. Punjab is a leading wheat producing state. last year, the temperature in Punjab was 4-5 degrees more than the average. which reduced the output by 5 million metric tonnes, less output means higher prices and it impacted your wallet. and this is just about one cereal vegetables, pulses, fruits, all of them are impacted due to heat. this heat is burning a hole in your pocket.

What can we do?

heatwaves are a reality, keep the studies aside just have a look outside and witness the reality. India needs to adapt. as a country we don’t have to be reactive but become proactive, heatstroke are a serious medical condition. in 2015, 2422 people died due to heatstroke. according to the government, during a heatwave one must avoid out between 12 to 4 pm. but does a famer or a construction worker have that privilege? no right? the government can take a simple step by covering the footpaths by rooftops make rooftops on benches usually we have seen villagers eating food under trees. why? because this give relief. now we have removed trees from cities at least, we can bring some shade. those people who cannot afford an AC, their lives will be saved.

in 2019, the Indian government formulated a India Cooling Action Plan, which has some objectives and its deadline is 2028 reduce cooling demand in India by 25% reduce refrigerant demand in India by 25%, reduce cooling energy requirements in India by 25 to 40%. these targets are very ambitious but are critical for India. Because our electricity demands are going to skyrocket and in today’s age having electricity is an important requirement, transfering this electricity to consumers at an affordable rate is a challenge. we read a world bank report, which has studied studied opportunities in the cooling sector. this report states, that by reforming India’s cooling sector, emissions can be reduced by 60-80% and it can create 2-20 lakh new jobs. which means we need to convert the threat of rising temperature into an opportunity. in India, setting up sustainable cold chain systems and operating them has a potential of 17 lakh new jobs. India is at such a stage, that if we took the right steps today cooling can be provided at an affordable rate to our citizen. while studying about heatwaves we came across an important and interesting thing urban heat Islands, Urban heat Islands mean when the temperature of an urban area increases by the surrounding rural areas.

NASA’s ECOSTRESS instrument had noticed in the NCR region, that some pockets were more hot than its surrounding areas. these urban heat Islands didn’t cool down even at nights. Delhi’s temperature was around 35 to 39 degrees but the temperature in surrounding areas reduced upto 15 degrees at nights. India is urbanizing rapidly and as new cities are being developed similarly urban heat sinks are being developed. these urban heat sinks are created. because our cities are completely concrete forests more then plants and trees, we have concrete building and roads. rural areas have crops, trees, plants. which absorbs water from the soil. which is carried to their leaves and gets evaporated from there, this is known as “Transpiration” which works like a natural AC. urban heat Island are a reason for intensifying India’s heatwave problem, then how should we counter them. a simple solution is to increase greenery in cities, for urban cooling we are ignoring a prime real estate and that is rooftops. NASA Goddard institute published a study which said that rooftop gardens having types of plants reduced the effects of heat Islands Because these plants naturally keep the surrounding cooler. ultimately our attitude regarding climate events, that needs to change at an individual level we need to make our surrounding more green. you can start rooftop gardening, so that at an individual level we can save our environment and economy both. the environment and economy are connected, our food and rising temperatures are connected. and we need the young generation to understand this. so that we can appreciate what we have and most importantly preserve it.