India’s sinking city, will 20000 people be able to survive? – Sndp

A town in the Himalayas, where more than 20000 people live, which is slowly going under the ground

On January 2, 2023, a 52-year-old resident of Joshimath, Prakash Bhotiyal, was sleeping peacefully at night when he was jolted awake by a loud noise. When he woke up to check what had happened, he saw that the walls of his house had large cracks. cracks that appeared not in one of the rooms but in nine of the 11 rooms in his house. Prakash shifted all 11 members of his family to the remaining 2 rooms. since then, his entire family is living in those 2 rooms. It’s worrisome because in the near future, there will be no safe rooms. because similar cracks have been spotted in about 700 buildings in Joshimath. “The entire city is sinking into the ground. “Joshimath, the city that serves as Lord Badrinath’s winter residence, is sinking. The cracks have appeared not just in one place but in different parts of the town. These cracks have developed as a result of continued land subsidence. the 17000 residents have been sounding the alarm about worsening subsidence.” Joshimath is an important place. in Uttrakhand’s Chamoli district, at an altitude of 1800 meters. you will find this city with a population of around 23000 people. Badrinath Shrine, one of the most important pilgrimage spots for Hindus, is located quite close to this city. Around 45km from here. Apart from that, the city of Auli lies nearby. a famous place for skiing. and the government is trying to promote it as an international skiing destination. There are several trekking trails nearby, and it’s close to the Indo-China border as well. This is why there’s a major Indian Army base in Joshimath and a strategic road that goes to the Indo-Tibetian border. Apparently, large cracks have appeared on this road as well. since joshimath’s location is so important, over the past few decades large-scale construction been in the town. of hotels, restaurants, and other establishments. 

It is claimed that the city came into existence only a hundred years ago. There was an earthquake nearby that caused a landslide, and many rocks tumbled down and settled in this area. Over time, the rocks stabilized, and the city was built on top of them. but the problem was that this made the land unsuitable for construction. especially for dams or wide roads to be built in this area or for building highways. because infrastructure projects of this scale often require the use of explosives and drilling. Tunnels have to be drilled into mountains; explosives are used, but doing so weakens the slope. According to the seismic zone map of India, the Joshimath area falls in zone 5, the highest risk zone for earthquakes. Buildings in Joshimath getting cracks isn’t a new event; this has been happening for a long time.

In October 2021, residents of Gandhi Nagar and Sunil wards in Joshimath noticed cracks in their homes. and some months later, in mid-2022, residents of Ravigram spotted cracks in their homes too. In September 2022, the Uttarakhand state disaster management authority published a report in which they blamed the ill-planned construction. They claimed that there were no proper drainage systems and that people were carrying out construction without proper planning, which eventually leads to more problems. This issue has been discussed in the media only recently because the problem has now escalated so much that every fourth house has a crack. The entire city has started sinking, and it cannot be ignored any longer. Thousands of people will become homeless. More than 80 families have been relocated from their homes, and the national disaster response force and the border security forces have been carrying out the evacuations. The biggest question that arises here is, “Who is at fault?”

Who is to be Blamed?

If TV news channels are to be believed, the residents of Joshimath are to blame. They built homes in such a sensitive place; what else were they expecting? that they shouldn’t have engaged in unplanned construction. and the locals blame the government. The government blames the builders and development planners. and the builders blame the mountains. The mountains are at fault. In reality, the city’s residents deserve the least blame. If private hotels are built in an unplanned way, or other buildings, for that matter, the duty to stop that construction falls on the government. Additionally, checking the wastewater disposal and managing the drainage systems is the government’s job. It’s true that some things cannot be controlled. such as the natural disasters that occur. the natural erosions, but even the natural causes can be blamed on human development and climate change. due to climate change, it is estimated that due to climate, it is estimated that over the next 2 decades. the average temperature of Uttarakhand will increase by more than 2°C. Such a rise in temperature means that the ice will melt. The patterns of rainfall will change, and natural disasters like flash floods and landslides will have a higher chance of occurring. The crop seasons will change, and it will affect the farmers dearly. These are already happening.

the article from 2 years ago, on how farmers from Uttarakhand were already migrating due to climate change. but climate change is a major issue, albeit a separate issue. it can be indirectly and only to a small extent for the Joshimath crisis. so let’s focus on the direct causes. the first direct cause is said to be The Tapoven Vishnugad Hydropower Project.  

The Tapoven Vishnugad Hydropower Project

It is a hydroelectric project whose construction began in 2006, and the construction is still going on. A tunnel was dug out for this project that goes right under Joshimath. as it is alleged. Geologists M. P. S. Bisht and Piyush Rautela published a paper in 2010 titled “Disaster looms large over Joshimath.” In their research paper, they mentioned that this particular project could single-handedly change the landscape of Joshimath. and can put Joshimath in danger. but why? They mentioned that in December 2009, during the construction of this project, the equipment that was being used punctured an aquifer in Joshimath. An aquifer is a kind of underground structure that is surrounded by rocks. Basically, you can think of this as a large pit underground—a well that naturally exists—where the groundwater is stored naturally. They claimed that a tunnel boring machine was used to puncture this aquifer, about 5 km from Joshimath. By “puncturing,” they meant that there was a hole at the corner of this aquifer, from where the groundwater started leaking. They said that due to the puncture, every day 70 million liters of groundwater are discharged. about 700 to 800 liters per second. According to this 2010 article, this water would have been otherwise sufficient to sustain 2–3 million people each day. However, there were no scientific studies into this, and that’s why to blame it as the direct cause for sure, there’s not enough proof. That’s why NTPC, the National Thermal Power Corporation Limited, the company building this hydropower project, has claimed that the tunnel is not at fault. that the tunnel is not the reason why the city is sinking. NTPC claims that the tunnel wasn’t dug under Joshimath. that they dug this tunnel 1 km away from Joshimath and 1 km underground. and the second direct cause is said to be a 6 km-long road. 

A 6 km long road

The Helong-Marwari bypass is currently under construction. This is a part of the 800-kilometer-long Char Dham project. a project that was inaugurated in 2016 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a cost of around 120 billion rupees. In December 2022, the Modi government requested the Supreme Court’s permission for the second time to construct a bypass in the Char Dham project. The Champawat bypass Both times, the Supreme Court refused to grant approval. Geologist Naveen Juyal, a member of the high committee appointed by the supreme court, reviewed the Char Dham Project and said that some of the members suggested that the road should not be built until the geotechnical feasibility study of the area is conducted. But he claims that their suggestions were completely ignored, and the structure was permitted to be built without waiting for any scientific reports. Here, he was referring to the Helong-Marwari bypass road. The locals claim that during the construction of the road, they witnessed explosives and drilling being employed. “Right now we are standing 1 km away from Joshimath.” It is 1:52 in the morning, and you can see stone crushing happening under the nose of the Chamoli District administration.

Now that the media is picking up on the story, the construction of this road under the Char Dham Project has been temporarily stopped. I told you that near Joshimath, there’s another city called Auli. that has a ski resort. and so there’s a cable car ropeway as well. The pillars of the ropeway show signs of damage. Overall, the problem can simply be classified as a problem of sustainable development. something that we were taught in schools. The land that is sinking here is known as “land subsidence” in English. There can be several reasons for land subsidence, including the earth’s crust moving due to an earthquake. This is a natural cause, but there can be man-made causes as well. such as groundwater removal. The thing is that when the groundwater is used up or removed, the rocks and land that the water was holding up crumble and start sinking. Geologists believe that Jakarta, Indonesia, is one of the fastest sinking cities in the world, and even there, 80% of the reason is said to be this.

You might be shocked to know that the problem of land subsidence in Joshimath was identified nearly 50 years ago. In 1976, the MC Mishra committee was formed, which identified the reasons behind this phenomenon. They published their report. “The Mishra Committee Report of 1976” is the oldest report on Joshimath’s land subsidence problem. In this report, they warn that the rocks there should not be disturbed and that there should be no digging or explosives in the area. The reports even point out that the drainage facility in the city isn’t proper. That was further aggravating the problem and causing more landslides. In 2006, the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology (WIHG) published another report. The reports stated that there might be an eventual collapse of the entire city. that the drainage services needed repairs. in 2013, a committee appointed by the supreme Court, identified the hydro-power project in Uttarakhand, as a significant hazard to the area, the construction of hydro-power projects. But did the government pay heed to these warnings? Instead, in 2019, the government said that all hydro-power projects of more than 25 megawatts should be given faster clearances and the status of “renewable projects.” Renewable energy is a step in the right direction, but the project needs to be started only after extensive research, including conducting scientific studies, on whether building those projects will be a positive step. “Joshimath Bachao Sangharsh Samiti” is a group that, since 2004, has been protesting against NTPC’s Vishugad Hydra Power Project. They believe that the situation that Joshimath is in is due to this hydropower project. “According to the satellite images, in 12 days, Joshimath has sunk 5.4 cm.“

Now the project that Joshimath is going through is a warning sign for the towns and cities in the surrounding areas. There are several towns nearby in the Chamoli district. such as Karnaprayag and Gopeshwar. Issues of land subsidence have been reported in these areas as well. The biggest fact is that, as per ISRO’s latest reports, this land subsidence cannot be reversed. Over the last 12 days, from December 27 to January 8, there has been land subsidence of a total of 5.5 cm in Joshimath. If you compare this to the last 7 months, from April to November, the subsidence was around 9 cm. These photos were released by ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Center. We will have to see whether the government takes action to prevent such future disasters or whether it learns a lesson from Joshimath. Although the government has promised to pay 5000 rupees per month per family to the families in Joshimath, that amount was later revised when the chief minister of Uttarakhand came to visit. to 150000 rupees per family. but the locals are demanding compensation of $500,000. Joshimath is being evacuated now, and experts suggest that after the evacuation, the drainage system’s rainwater outlets need to be replanned, and there should be a rock strength assessment to determine the sustainability and strength of these rocks.