why will China and Saudi’s partnership be dangerous for India?

Why would China and Saudi Arabia’s alliance be hazardous to India?

This is Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince & Prime minister and this is Xi Jinping. and this photo of them, can be very dangerous for India. buy why? why will China and Saudi’s partnership be dangerous for India? what do they want from each other? and how does it matter to India?

Saudi’s first Love

China and Saudi Arabia’s love story is building today, but China wasn’t Saudi’s first love. Before China, Saudi was in a relationship with America. Let’s rewind a bit. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries have formed a group, OPEC and OPEC+. They meet and take decisions together on oil production and pricing. The demands on other countries keep fluctuating. and in such a volatile world, if all the oil-producing countries took decisions together. then everyone will benefit from it, if all are together, everyone grows.

The story is from 1973, when, between Egypt and Israel, a war was going on. America supported Israel, and Saudi Arabia got upset. They used OPEC to increase the price of oil from $3 to $12. Due to this, America went through a recession for two years. but even in adverse situations. How to do profit? This can be learned from America. This person, “Henry Kissinger,” was America’s foreign minister. He came to Riyadh and convinced Saudi Arabia to sell their crude oil in US dollars. This is known as the “Petrodollar Agreement,” which changed the world. Saudi started selling their petrol in dollars to America and they even convinced other OPEC countries for the same. In return, America gave military protection to Saudi Arabia and gave Saudi Arabia permission to invest US dollars in America.

Why is the US dollar so powerful today? Because all OPEC countries invest all their money in American government bonds, both countries benefit from this: Saudi Arabia gets weapons from America, and America gets oil from Saudi Arabia. This relationship was good for both of them. but then a new chapter was introduced: China.

China and Saudi’s relationship

China and Saudi’s relationship is special. Because China can be a factory for the world, it can export goods to the world. but in the trade which happens between Saudi and China, China imports more from Saudi, the trade is in deficit. Let me give you an example. in 2022 Saudi imported $30 billion goods from China, whereas China imported $50 billion goods from Saudi. Saudi Arabia earns a lot from China; China is Saudi Arabia’s top trading partner, and China has everything. It has money and companies, as well as modern infrastructure. But it doesn’t have one thing, and that is oil. 18% of China’s oil comes from one country, Saudi Arabia. At the same time, 1/4th of Saudi Arabia’s total exports go to only one country: China. This thing has continued for many decades, and it makes sense. what doesn’t makes sense is, What Saudi wants from China?

What Saudi wants?

From past few years, many Arab countries want to do. this one thing their heart “Separating their image from oil”. In the 20th century, when oil became mainstream, these Arab countries got lucky; every Arab country that had oil became the fastest-growing country, and that’s great for the Arab world. The problem now is that, in the coming 100 years, oil reserves will start depleting. So if these countries are too dependent on oil, then in the next 3 to 4 generations they won’t be relevant. Qatar, USE Saudi’s Leadership know about this and all of them are quite smart they think the future, MBS knows that Saudi Arabia is relevant today. because of its oil, but what about tomorrow?

Saudi Arabia has the world’s second-highest oil reserves; at one point, 90% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP was coming only from oil. this was not sustainable, because some or the other day oil is going to be over, that idea is to diversify, apart from oil make other income avenues. That’s why today in the Arab world, world cups are organized racing events; mega projects like these happen and are discussed around the world. Saudi Arabia has oil wealth, but for the country’s development, they need more funds, they need laborers, they need technology, they need skills, and these things they have to import from somewhere.

now, some days ago American president went to Saudi, they requested Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. so that the cost comes under control, but this request was clearly rejected by Saudi. the question is, if Saudi buys weapons from America. then without a backup plan, they wont take this risk and the backup plan is China. which strategies have China used and gas grown its economy from zero. and how China wants to dominate the world. China can be our rival, but there are so many things that can be learned from China.

China’s dangerous deals with Saudi

OPEC countries started selling oil in dollars in American economic history, this was a watershed moment. watershed moment means a moment, which changed the water’s direction. which is impossible to reverse, China is planning something like this with Saudi Arabia. They are talking about trading oil in Yuan. Last year, Xi Jinping landed in Riyadh, where he was welcomed with VVIP treatment and, on the same day, 34 agreements were signed. In fact, Saudi Aramco said that China’s energy security is a priority for them, not just for 5 years but for 50 years. simultaneously, different companies from these countries are signing deals worth $30 billion. China is playing chess with Saudi; it is assuring that, as in the last century, Saudi is dependent on America. Similarly, in the 21st century, it becomes dependent on China; infrastructure, education, and the military are involved in this.

China is providing infrastructure to Saudi Arabia through its BRI. in 2021 Saudi Arabia got the largest share of BRI funds of all other nations. If we talk about education, Saudi Arabia is teaching Chinese language to its students in four major Saudi universities, and these courses are available. China wants to spread its propaganda through education. That’s why in Arab countries, they have made 20 institutes like these to teach Chinese language, culture, and scripts; these are called Confucius institutes. secondly Saudi Arabia consistently is one of the world’s top 2 arms importers, Saudi’s defense needs can be fulfilled by China. It is not as advanced as the US, but it is catching up in speed. China is progressing a lot in defense with the help of Russia; it is developing the expertise of weapon manufacturing, and China is the largest drone exporter in the world.

A research paper says that, out of the top 18 countries, 11 countries procured armed drones from China. Saudi Arabia and China have signed an important agreement through which they won’t comment on each other’s internal affairs.

Impact on India & on the World

China considers Ladakh and Arunachal as its internal matter, through the salami slicing technique. it is taking both these areas, under its land area. Usually countries, apart from India, won’t comment on this, but by making such deals, it seems China is buying their silence. This is a big challenge for India’s foreign policy. India and Saudi Arabia’s relations in the past eight years have improved a lot. If we import oil from them, then they import talent from us. Many skilled workers from India go to Saudi Arabia for work. This China-Saudi partnership can be good for us because it forms a new group in the world. China is trying to sideline India while maintaining relations with Nepal and the Maldives. They had done something similar when the contract for upgrading Male Airport in the Maldives was given to an Indian company, GMR. but due to China’s increasing closeness. in 2012 Maldives scrapped this deal and China took airport development rights.

if we talk about Nepal, then India and Nepal’s relations are a mixed bag sometimes friendly and sometimes not but from past few years Nepal is closer to China, so much that Chinese ambassador was seen with their politicians discussing internal policies. Since China has started talking with these two countries, India’s relations have taken a back seat. Take a look at Bangladesh. China has funded so many projects there that for Bangladesh, all crimes committed by China are void. China is surrounding India not only geographically but also politically in this Saudi-China deal, and India can become collateral damage. but a challenge bigger than that is facing America. after the end if cold war in the whole world. these was the only one super power America. But China is becoming a big threat to America. China is emerging as another superpower. If Saudi Arabia goes on China’s side, then China can become very powerful.

In the past three years, this would be America’s third biggest strategic defeat. The first was when they underestimated the Taliban. 2nd, when they underestimated Russia. and the third would be now, when they are underestimating China.